Dividend Discount Model (DDM) values a stock as the present value of future dividends. Pick the variant that matches how dividends grow: zero, constant, or changing.
Formulas
Notation:
P0 = intrinsic price today
D0 = last dividend paid
D1 = next year dividend
Dt = dividend in year t
r = required return (cost of equity)
g, g1, g2 = growth rates (overall, stage-1, terminal)
N = years in stage-1
TV_N = terminal value at year N
H = half-life of high-growth period (H = N/2)
General present-value setup (multi-stage):
P0 = sum_{t=1 to N} (Dt / (1 + r)^t) + (TV_N / (1 + r)^N)
TV_N = D_{N+1} / (r – g2) (use when growth becomes perpetual at g2)
Zero-growth (no growth, level dividend forever):
P0 = D / r
Constant-growth (Gordon Growth):
D1 = D0 * (1 + g)
P0 = D1 / (r – g)
Solve for r if you know price: r = (D1 / P0) + g
Solve for g if you know price: g = r – (D1 / P0)
Two-stage (g1 for N years, then g2 forever):
For t = 1..N: Dt = D0 * (1 + g1)^t
D_{N+1} = D0 * (1 + g1)^N * (1 + g2)
TV_N = D_{N+1} / (r – g2)
P0 = sum_{t=1 to N} (Dt / (1 + r)^t) + (TV_N / (1 + r)^N)
H-Model (growth declines linearly from gS to gL over 2H years):
P0 = [ D0 * (1 + gL) + D0 * H * (gS – gL) ] / (r – gL)